Market Noise and the “News”

I am reminded in reading some of the headlines today that financial news reporters are completely clueless. Check out a graph of the S&P 500 on a daily basis including today’s action up until the time of the news article:

sp500

Notice how today’s daily range is barely detectable on the daily chart? That means that you should ignore today’s action and certainly any “news” that caused it. The market has to move 2.5% from here to mean anything at all.

It is my observation that there is a persistent need on the part of many beginning traders to react to or explain noise. Unless you are a day trader or swing trader, today, the market has done nothing at all. It is a meaningless day by itself. It is certainly not a day to make decisions. It may be a day setting up decisions for a future time (even, perhaps, later today after I submit this post) in some way. But it is not a day to make decisions.

So by using the headline “Wallstreet Lower After Housing Numbers” which implies that something happened, the New York Times is wasting my time by misleading me into doing something I would not otherwise have done. When I read the article even a few sentences and find out that I turned the page (or clicked on a link) for naught, that the headline is bogus, I don’t like it.

Is this a big deal? No. But it is annoying.

If nothing happened, ipso facto, nothing that caused it is exerting any influence. Better just to call it a “quiet day” and leave it at that. Now if something big happened but the market was quiet, that might be news, i.e. the fact that the market did nothing.

So when the market does nothing after some minor news, that’s not news, that’s noise. What do we do with noise? Turn it down or turn it off.

So it puzzles me that newspapers don’t understand why readership and profits are down so much. If they feel the need to supply news even when there isn’t any, why should they expect people to keep paying attention to what they say? Do they really think people will be happy to pay to tune out? Or might readers perhaps wonder if there are any real editors left in the industry.

Posted in Core Trading Concepts by Curtis Faith on May 28, 2009 at 1:28 pm
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